The Kirk Report

The NEW Kirk Report

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Happy 4th!

I hope you and your family have a Happy 4th of July! As a quick update, I'm still working on several summer projects (trading, strategy development, mentoring, website upgrade), but regular posting (and an entirely new website) will return by Labor Day, September 6th, 2010. I promise!

Until then, I'm only updating the members' only website while I trade and work on these key projects. But, I'll be back by Labor Day here at the free site. Lots of good things are planned upon my return!!!

Summer Fun

A quick update for non-members...

While I continue update the members' only website frequently (premarket report, after-hours report, weekend links, screens, etc.) I've been slacking here at the free site for awhile. Sorry about that!

While not an excuse, my focus of late has been primarily on on trading, helping members (a "summer school session" is planned for Saturday), and also on The Kirk Report's largest website upgrade since I started it back in 2003. Because of all of these three things, posting will remain limited for the foreseeable future here at the free page, but I think you'll enjoy what I've been working on when it is up and ready. After receiving a number of emails from concerned people about infrequent posting, I felt the need to at least let you know what I've been up to lately.

I hope you're having a wonderful summer!

Merry Christmas!

As I shared last year, my sincere Christmas wish:

May all of you have a wonderful Christmas!

Fund Managers Avoid Own Funds

The majority of fund managers do not have a single dollar of their personal assets in the funds they manage.

"So much for having some skin in the game. While investors typically like to see that mutual fund managers are eating a bit of their own cooking and investing in the funds they run, it turns out that the majority of fund managers actually do not have a single dollar of their personal assets in their funds.

According to data from Morningstar, managers in 2,257 funds, or 51%, of the roughly 4,400 mutual funds it has tracked for ownership levels over the last five years, have not personally invested in their own portfolios."

Read more at Investment News.

Interview With Charles E. Kirk

Every fall I try to do at least a couple of interviews in an effort to reach out to people who may have not discovered The Kirk Report.

While most people find this website through word of mouth and the recommendations from members, sometimes there's no substitute for a lengthy in-depth interview. So, last weekend, Damien Hoffman from Wall St. Cheat Street sat down with me and we talked about a number of interesting topics about life and trading. If you have some time, I'd highly recommend reading it. Here's the full interview!

Six Years

It's difficult to believe it has only been six years to the day that I started The Kirk Report. Frankly, I'm as enthusiastic and fired up now than I was after several people encouraged me to write this blog and share my insights.

Some interesting factoids since the very beginning:

• 13,265,882 visitors from 129 countries have visited

• I've replied to 738,242 emails

• There have been 9,357 posts

• I've shared 3,130 charts

• The S&P 500 closed at 1026.27 on 9/3/03

If the next six years are as interesting, educational and profitable as the last six have been, I will be extremely fortunate. A sincere thank you goes out to every one of you who've made these past six years special for me.

Bailout Backlash

It was only a matter of time before someone decided to create a nifty bailout calculator:

This calculator was developed by Right.org which also offers a petition for Americans to sign who are unhappy with these expenditures. Indeed, citizens across the USA are beginning to protest.

* Traders aren't too happy either as efforts to block the new trader tax heat up. What interesting times we live in!

Priorities & Changes For 2009

I hope the holidays were good for you and your family. I was able to take off one week for travel to visit with Mom and extended family, but the rest of the time was spent at the trading desk gearing up for the new year along with unpacking & getting set up in our new home. While it turned out to be mostly a working vacation around here, it was still time well-spent.

The good news is that I was able to get a lot accomplished. The new trading system is up and running and more importantly, I'm happy with it. I was also able to spend time evaluating last year's performance and reading member feedback via the annual membership survey in order to set new priorities, put some changes into effect, and set new goals for 2009.

The bad news is that to get everything that I really wanted to get done, I would need at least another couple of weeks. I'm sure many of know the feeling. After all, who of us has just enough time to get everything we want done in the time we have, right? That's what priorities are all about and getting started on the new year is at the top of the list. And, as bad timing goes, I'm now fighting the flu bug today so, ready or not, sun or shine, back to work I go!

Following my decision one year ago to concentrate my focus back on trading, it was a good but not great year overall for my trading portfolio. Up +11% in any year is not something to be especially proud of, though I'd be the first to admit given market conditions I could have fared far worse. I know many of you outperformed much better than that and if you managed positive returns in 2008, you should feel quite good about the year.

As I've said, lucky timing (for example, being out of the market and long treasuries due to my family's transition to Utah this summer and fall versus my personal views) helped my performance significantly in 2008. While there were many, the biggest mistake I personally made last year was not being more aggressive on the short-side, especially in the fourth quarter once we had a confirmed downtrend cycle. As they say, you have to take advantage of trends in both directions to do extremely well and I didn't take full advantage.

The best improvement in my trading is that the mistakes I made were fairly self-contained. For example, I had no loss greater than -19% in my portfolio for 2008 (in fact 86% of my losing trades were closed at less than -10% below my cost basis which is an improvement). While my loss/win rate was worse this year due to increased trading and higher market volatility (only 71% of the trades I made were profitable versus a much higher rate in previous years) the fact that I kept losses and mistakes I made small were key. Please keep in mind that my trading results have not been independently verified, but when they are I'll share the full track record with members.

For 2009, my focus will again remain on putting trading first and foremost (of course, after God, family, & health) and work on improving the value of your membership. I very much appreciate all of those who took time to provide feedback in the membership survey and I think I have a good plan in place to improve your experience here. Here are some of the key (but not all) of the improvements that will come in 2009:

• Trading Room: some of you want more "real-time" access to my thoughts and observations throughout the trading day. In 2009 I'll be adding a "trading room" feature to the members' only area that will provide you access to me on a more real-time basis. While the same kinds of posts I've done in the past will continue, for those who desire to know what I'm thinking and doing throughout the day short "twitter-like" mini-sized posts will be provided

• Improved End-Of-Day Newsletter: A few improvements will begin today and others will be added in time. You'll first notice a new section that provides three things - trend (up, down, flat), market condition (overbought, oversold, neutral), and bias (bullish, bearish, neutral). I will update these as needed and they will be in alignment with my daily commentary/analysis. Also, you'll soon see another new section called "three to read." I know many of you don't have time to read all of the links I share, so every trading day I'll pick out three that I personally think are important to read and worth your time. Finally, I'm also narrowing the ticker symbol watchlists to encourage you to actually look at stocks showing up among these lists. They are there to help you stay on top of the market and look for new opportunities, even if you're not a full-time trader

• RIP Timing Indicator & Retirement Portfolio: they weren't helpful to most and it was poor execution and delivery on my part, so they have been removed. For timing, bias, and overall direction - these things will be provided in the end-of-day newsletter instead. As for retirement portfolios, we'll cover more of these in 2009 that will be of help to those looking for more buy and hold strategies to consider as well as timing techniques to apply to them in 2009

• No More Polls: it's clear from the feedback that two things the majority of you do not like are polls I've conducted and the contest I provided concerning members' top picks. So, both are gone in 2009. You've spoken and I've heard you!

• Stock Screen Machine: the best thing about 2008 was that all of us which develop and use stock screens was able to find out how those strategies performed in one of the worst period of market history. If you've done your job, this period has at least shown how bad it can get and how much these strategies can suffer during the worst of times. For 2009, I have a four point plan that includes more screens, more filters, better tracking, and increased performance. I've been working on this for the majority of last year and you'll see those improvements come to fruition in 2009

• More Charts: Many of you wanted more charts to view along with my analysis. As a goal, throughout the month I'm hoping to provide chart analysis on the majority of stocks currently found within my screens in order to offer additional insight.

• ETF Focus & New Tool: I've already begun sketching out the design of a new tool to help those of you who trade ETFs exclusively. While I can't provide details on this quite yet, I expect this to become part of the website sometime before the second half of 2009. As I've said, I've been trading ETFs more and more and this tool hopefully will be of some help if that is your desire as well.

• Website Makeover: While not high on the priority list, we're overdue for a bit of a website makeover which will enable some new features I have planned and take care of some of the issues reported by members in the membership survey.

• Mentorships, Private Consultations, & Utah Mountain Retreat: One of the things I missed most about 2008 was that I no longer was in the position to help members on a one-on-one individual basis. So, I'll be offering both private one-hour consultations and mentorships (although limited in number) at an additional cost for those who desire to take advantage of those opportunities. I will also be offering the first Utah mountain retreat where I'll work with members in a small group and bring in special outside experts to offer their own insights as well. Much more on this later.

• Higher Membership Dues: Just kidding! There will be no membership hikes for 2009. While 97% of you think your membership is worth far more than the $50 per year fee I charge (according to those who took the annual membership survey), I plan to keep minimum dues the same for yet another year. (Fortunately, many you contribute more than the yearly minimum which also helps.) Hopefully the other features I offer (i.e. mentorships, private consultations, retreat) will provide enough funds necessary to do the upgrades I have planned for the coming year. The fact is that if the market doesn't rally as much as everyone hopes and now expects in 2009, interest in websites that focus on the market will see less interest and financial support. Although my membership continues to grow at a healthy clip (up over 20% again last year), it would ridiculous to believe that will continue forever especially if rough market conditions continue.

So, all in all, I'm excited about the opportunities 2009 will offer both you and I as I put these changes among others into action. 2008 was very much a transitional year in so many respects for me both personally and professionally and it is with the utmost sincerity that I offer this word of appreciation for you. After all, your continued support makes this website possible and one of the more enjoyable things that I do. Thank you!

Christmas Tidings From Fred