Monday, February 01, 2010

January Barometer Portfolio

January Barometer Portfolio
You've probably heard by now that there's a strong belief that the sectors that outperform in the month of January tend to outperform for the full-year ahead. I've heard the same for many years, so last year to test that theory we looked at the sectors (as represented by ETFs) which outperformed in January of 2009. At the time, three sectors outperformed the rest: Utilities (XLU), Healthcare (XLV), and Energy (XLE).

So for the full year of 2009, how did those groups perform for the entire year? Here's the data:

Full-Year 2009 Sector Performance

As you see the three sectors which outperformed the S&P 500 as represented by the SPY were Technology (XLK), Materials (XLB), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY). None of these outperformed in January of 2009. In fact, Utilities (XLU) which was the best sector performer in 2009 underperformed everything else. While one year's performance doesn't offer much to go on, it just goes to show that sometimes market beliefs are not validated by the performance.

With that said, this year we'll do the same thing by looking at the sectors which outperformed the most last month to see if we see the same thing again in 2010.

Sector Performance: January 2010

So far, Healthcare (XLV), Consumer Staples (XLP), Industrials (XLI), & Financials (XLF) are outperforming while Materials (XLB) and Technology (XLK) are underperforming.

For those of you more interested to see subindustry relative strength, I recommend the ETFdb 60 Index which offers you the ability to track on a year-to-date basis the largest unleveraged ETFs covering a variety of sectors. According to that, here are the ETFs which are positive on a year-to-date basis:

ETFdb 60: YTD

We will check back in a year from now to see if what we saw in 2009 continues again this year and that sector performance in January has no direct relationship to year-long performance trends.

Posted by Kirk at 10:21 AM in Research | Bookmark | Feeds | Link |


Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Healthcare Investment Opportunities

Investment Opportunities

As I promised last week, I spent some time over the past few days focusing my stock screening tools on the healthcare sector. It is my view that sector is relatively undervalued and it presents some attractive longer-term opportunities with a 12-24 month time horizon.

The goal here is to create a long-term healthcare watchlist composed of the sector's best risk/reward opportunities. As of today, my healthcare focus list is composed of the following 15 stocks.....[READ]

Posted by Kirk at 9:36 AM in Research | Bookmark | Feeds | Link |


Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Junk Mail Indicator

In recent days I've received a ton of junk mail offering me opportunities to make money from the falling dollar or diversify beyond it. Case in point, yesterday's junk mail from EverBank marketing their WorldCurrency CDs. I love the subtle tag line on this one - "Don't let the economy take you down with it. Diversify beyond the dollar."

Junk Mail Indicator

Clearly, this trend has been intact for a long-time now although it really has picked up speed in recent months due to the Fed's aggressive rate cutting actions.

Long-Term Chart Of U.S. Dollar

Hats off to Buffett among others who said throughout this time that the dollar was going to get trashed and who still remain convinced that this trend will remain intact for some time to come.

Will the junk mail indicator be helpful this time around as a contrarian tell? Only time will tell.

Posted by Kirk at 9:32 AM in Research | Bookmark | Feeds | Link |


Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Trade Like A Bookie

Posted by Kirk at 1:24 PM in Research | Bookmark | Feeds | Link |


Friday, December 07, 2007

For What It's Worth

Posted by Kirk at 2:22 PM in Research | Bookmark | Feeds | Link |


Thursday, November 29, 2007

Points To Consider

Posted by Kirk at 5:46 PM in Research | Bookmark | Feeds | Link |


Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Tilting the Odds

Posted by Kirk at 4:34 PM in Research | Bookmark | Feeds | Link |


Friday, November 23, 2007

Black Friday Roundup

Posted by Kirk at 11:20 AM in Research | Bookmark | Feeds | Link |


Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Turkey Shoot

Posted by Kirk at 4:44 PM in Research | Bookmark | Feeds | Link |


Thursday, November 15, 2007

Read'em & Reap

Posted by Kirk at 1:57 PM in Research | Bookmark | Feeds | Link |

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