The Kirk Report

Classic Window Dressing

You know it is window dressing when you see strength in the market's recent leaders at the end of the month.

Strength within materials, coal, metals & mining, oil & gas groups today enabled the market to close with a gain even as oil prices managed to snap back and close higher. So much for the notion that the market goes down as oil prices climb.

The most interesting part of the day in my opinion was the strength within the retailers. I suspect that some are trying to go after these stocks on the idea that the worst is behind the consumer as oil prices are set to fall. We'll see if it gains any traction beyond what we saw today. Meanwhile, the financials continue to search for a bottom like a blind man without a cane:

Tomorrow we have the GDP report and the oil inventories data (my mistake about it being released today - I forgot it was only a 4-day week) along with a lot of other noise to deal with.

I hope the week is going well for you so far.

Market Sentiment

• Consumers are feeling worse about their personal finances and prospects

• Choosing bankruptcy to stay afloat

• Federal Reserve officials are like the rest of us?

• Inflation expectations are no longer well-anchored

• HSBC chief accuses governments of not facing up to inflation

• Understanding liquidity is key

• Yen declines to one-month low versus Euro on carry-trade demand

• Investors bet Persian Gulf will loosen dollar pegs

• Libor exposed

• Where the financial crisis is headed next

• The credit crunch effects yet to come

• Banks miss an easy housing fix

• Bank failures to surge in coming years

• Bill Gross' investment outlook for June

• There is a serious dichotomy between growth as measured by the median EPS growth rate and as measured by the total net income growth

• That's a lot of bearish bloggers

• Conflicting sentiment signals

• The temporal anchoring of expectations

• Elliott Wave reversals

• Volume declines cut both ways

• Technicians should be losing sleep over this

• Identifying potential highs & lows through Fibonacci

• Sector performance by calendar month

• Asset allocation sorted by stochastics

• Chinese lessons

• Shanghai struggles with 50 day ma

• Brazilian stocks are hot!

• How long can the Latin American bull run continue?

• Following the money to Dubai

• Hedge funds foment Russia credit crunch with 16% puts

• Only five countries have suffered annual house-price falls in the latest data

• Drastic action may be needed if housing slump worsens

• Abandoned houses are keeping contractors busy

• Housing market charts

• "As always, we will continue to buy companies that have the best fundamentals in the marketplace. At the moment, many of those companies are in the energy, agricultural, and materials sectors." - Louis Navellier

• Wishful thinking? Pump prices may have peaked

• The new fad - reports of gas tank and line puncturing are starting to trickle into police departments and repair shops across the country

• Index investors driving commodity prices?

• 60% of today’s crude oil price is pure speculation driven by large trader banks and hedge funds

• Understanding crude oil prices

• How would you like 12-cent gas?

• "In order to feed growing demand, agricultural production would have to increase 50% by 2030." - Hafez Ghanem

• Peak water?

• There's been no refuge in healthcare stocks

• Transport stocks may have hit a wall

• The most promising ETF's? Russia & Coal

• GE eyes world's next big worry - water

• Lost opportunities haunt final days of Bear Stearns

• Lehman's confidence game

• Cleaning up after Fannie & Freddie will be no easy task

• Key grows more pessimistic about loans

• Uncle Sam pays massive credit card fees, too

• Smart oil hedging by Southwest Airlines

• As Standard Pacific gets a lifeline, bearish traders get zinged

• Flir Systems' breakout draws attention

• Humana's road to recovery

• A clearance sale at Jos. A. Bank?

• A solar-powered iPhone?

• Energy stocks with room to run

• Bets on wind energy

• The best, from the brightest

• "We face the most serious recession of our lifetime." - George Soros

• The next Buffetts

• America's hottest investor

• Janet Brown only buys what's hot

• A Singapore-based hedge fund uses computer models to pick trades

• The folly of political portfolios

• New analyst ratings

• The earnings calendar is on the light side this week

• 10 most frequently searched stocks

• Wall Street's buy list

• Stocks 50% above their 50 day & 200 day moving averages

• Banks that need to raise capital quickly

• World's largest stocks and who owns them

• Pacesetters adds two stocks to their current portfolio this month

• "Successful traders have a range of personalities. The critical thing is they must be risk takers who are comfortable with uncertainty and have a certain degree of abstract reasoning ability. They have to enjoy trying to piece together the mosaic of information needed to make a good investment, and they need some degree of caution, thoroughness, and coachability." - Ari Kiev

• James Altucher's four strategies for boosting your annual returns

• The stock market's great paradox

• Eight lessons from the great bear markets of the past 100 years

• How thinking costs you

• If it feels bad, it's probably a good trade

• What exactly is expectancy?

• Another Q&A with Brian Shannon

• What you can learn from the bid-ask spread

• Day trading time zones

• More on using p/e ratios

• Using meditative techniques can help tame the trading demons

• The easiest E-mini?

• Northern Trust casts wide net over country indexes

• TheStreet.com's rates 37 new ETFs

• Should you buy ETFs of ETFs?

• There's now a fund dedicated to the greed principle

• AAII does an in-depth review of several web-based stock screening services

• Ticker Cloud!

• The perils of investing as a couple

• 5 money management tips the rich can offer all of us

• Financial advice for new grads

• Chicago is the best city for traders

• I finally have a good reason to visit North Dakota!

• New tax law makes escape tougher for tax exiles

• Making the case for taking a vacation

• How to travel smart this summer

• Email scammers focus on renewable energy

• A terrible and completely avoidable tragedy

• "It's easy to have faith in yourself and have discipline when you're a winner, when you're number one. What you got to have is faith and discipline when you're not a winner." - Vince Lombardi

Oil & Window Dressing

Good morning. Premarket futures have a positive bias as a pullback in oil gathers downside momentum. In addition, better than expected durable-goods orders and positive news from retailers like Chico's Fas (CHS) & American Eagle Outfitter (AEO) are helping sentiment.

Premarket gainers: FORD, DCI, DAR, AEO, PWRD, COGT, AKNS, JRJC, UAUA, AMR, WX, SAP, UFPT, SWN, QSFT, CKXE, HGSI, ADBE, SINO, SNHY, JBHT, INGN, YHOO, NVDA, LCC HUBG, QTWW, CPSL, BCON, ANSS, & DRYS

Premarket losers: MDCO, PSEC, SNDA, JBLU, CSIQ, KEY, WYNN, JMBA, CSUN, SOLF, JASO, PEIX, ADM, BP, HERO, & AMGN

At 10:30 we have the weekly oil inventory data and at 12:50 some Fedspeak from Minneapolis' Fed member Stern. Some end of the month window dressing will likely occur today which provides a reasonably good chance that we'll rally back to the top of the trend channel as long as oil prices remain under pressure. Keep an eye on sector rotations out of energy and commodities into technology, financials, and the retail for intraday confirmation.

Have a wonderful Wednesday!