The Kirk Report

Will History Repeat?

Stocks have moved in the opposite direction of oil prices over the last several trading days and today was no exception.

The good news is that the S&P managed to bounce from its 50 day moving average. The next question is whether history will repeat and we'll see another counter-trend failure much like we did last October.

The market was very overbought last Monday and the pullback we've seen has been constructive. That said, there is always a fine line between a garden variety overbought pullback and a failed rally.

For now, the jury is still out, but clear battle lines have been drawn. A resolution of the pattern above should be of tremendous help to us as we enter the final month of the second quarter.

Plenty Of Multitasking

It is important to know and understand your weaknesses so you can adjust and work around them.

My biggest weakness is my inability to multi task well. This is especially true if I'm working on projects very different from my normal work routine. That's why I don't trade and hold open positions during vacations and why in times of stress I move and stay sidelined until I can center my focus back on the market.

I've always had this problem. For example, my grade school teachers would tell my parents that they had no difficulty telling when I was doing my homework and studying and when I wasn't because I would either excel and do better than anyone else in the class or I would be at the bottom. There was no in-between for me. Those of you who've been long-term readers of this website probably already know this about me.

As a board member of my home owner's association, my focus this week is on taking care of neighbors as well as friends who lost their homes during the weekend storm. I knew from conversations over the weekend that I would have my hands full this week, but after spending about five hours on the phone today, I realized that I seriously underestimated the work that is ahead for me. This week will be filled with emergency meetings, inspections, hiring contractors, volunteer cleanup, and helping others navigate the insurance mess the damage has created.

Of course, during this time my posting schedule will be lighter than usual. However, as a goal, before the end of the week I'd like to do at least do one link post, some chart requests, and another mailbag. If I'm able to do that, I'll consider that to be a good week providing that I can also do what I can to help the neighborhood. I appreciate your patience while I do what I can to multi task priorities this week.

Four-Day Trading Week

Good morning. Premarket futures are pointing to a mixed start as oil prices rally on Nigerian attacks, recession talk by both Warren Buffett and Alan Greenspan, and M&A chatter surrounding Anheuser-Busch (BUD) & Chemtura (CEM). In addition, after UBS warned yesterday of more losses, analysts have been cutting the earnings outlook for some key names in the financials this morning.

Premarket gainers: ASTI, NGAS, CSUN, ESLR, SPF, AKNS, SOLF, CEDC, CEM, SUTR, STP, TASR, KONG, SEED, BUD, OMNI, & ANIK.

Premarket losers: FVRL, UBS, LEH, FTK, IOSP, AMCP, MRVL, NOK, VVUS, CHL, CPSL, IFX, QGEN, ERIC, & SINO.

At 10:AM we have reports on consumer confidence and new home sales. Weakness in either report will not be of any great surprise. There also are speeches from Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner, speaking on banking and financial risk in Brazil, while non-voting San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen is speaking on the economic outlook.

In my experience, four-day trading weeks are always challenging and this one looks to be no different. The bulls need to show some confidence and take back control or just about all of the positive mojo earned from the counter trend rally will be lost. End of the month window dressing may very well help especially if we move into oversold territory early in the week, but I suspect they'll also need some positive news to work with regarding the economy as well.

Let's make it a great week!

* Again, many thanks for all of you who emailed and expressed concern for us. Our property losses are relatively insignificant (although our home looks like someone fired a shotgun at it). My plan this week is to dedicate as much time as I can to working with community leaders to help my hometown recover.