Market Guru Predictions

Here's more from the 2007 membership survey. When I asked "With your market guru hat on, do you have any shocking predictions for 2007?", the replies, I think, reflect some of the themes, predictions, and viewpoints commonly shared among individual investors. Few predictions, in reality, qualified as truly "shocking." In addition, quite a few members didn't answer the question primarily on grounds that either they don't consider themselves a guru and/or that thinking in these like of terms often creates unprofitable bias (a point, by the way, I do agree with). Still, some very common themes expressed by members were:

• We'll see strength in first half of the year and weakness/recession in second half of the year



• Many concerns about the world political scene and the Middle East (Iraq & Iran)



• Lots of talk about the dollar, interest rates, & energy prices (both positive and negative)



• Concerns over emerging markets



• Expectations for a sharp correction sometime in 2007 (something similar to 1987)

It is true that the things that you should be most worried about are the things you don't already know to worry about, so it will be interesting to see if any of these themes play out the way so many expect. By the way, if I had to answer the same question myself, I think I would say that I expect a major increase in worldwide market volatility in 2007. Of course, I believe I said the same thing last year and we see how wrong I was about that. ;)

Members who are interested in reading how others responded to this question (entirely unedited) as well as their views on 1) whether there will be a recession in 2007, 2) whether the Fed will hike, lower, or keep interest rates steady, 3) the direction of oil prices, and 4) overall stance of members (bullish, bearish, neutral) should read today's trading notes.