The Kirk Report

More Work Left To Do

It may be an understatement, but it was a another tough week for the market.

Following disappointment that the Federal Reserve was sticking to their plan to remain "data dependent," the data that came out this week only increased anxiety that the Fed is not done. While inflation concerns haven't mattered, suddenly the market has decided to change their mind, at least temporarily.

All of the major indexes posted substantial weekly losses across the board. The Dow fell -2.1%, the Nasdaq -2.2%, the S&P 500 -1.9% and the Russell 2000 -2.7%. Moreover, the hot groups that nearly everyone has been hiding in recently took the largest hits as commodities fell the most since December 1980. Those money market funds paying a risk free +5% have to be looking very attractive to more than a few folks.

When you step away from all of the anxiety and stress, it could have been far worse. Too many investors just became far too spoiled by a market that always seemed to find a way to climb the proverbial wall of worry. Those days are now behind us. For good or for ill, we're now left with a market that is trying to price in some reality. And, even with the pullback we've seen, I still think we have more work left to do.

No matter what, if you have kept your perspective, a clear head, and risk in check I'm sure you did well for yourself this week. And, if you didn't, next week will certainly provide you with another opportunity to do the right thing. Have a great weekend and I'll see you before the opening bell on Monday.

Big Fat Chicken

The gold bugs are finally starting to get nervous and are just now remembering the age old lesson that momentum does indeed go in both directions. I was again short the GLD this morning for another quick daytrade and I just covered the position. Frankly, I should have held onto yesterday's short in the GLD overnight but I've been one big fat chicken.

So will we see a typical dead cat bounce today? I wouldn't put it past them, but let's put it this way - if we don't see some stabilization soon, Monday could very well be one for the record books. Where is that plunge protection team when you need them?

Traders should expect some increased volatility in the new few hours. Now, onto the Q&A!

Pondering The Oversold Bounce

Good morning. It's options expiration Friday and premarket futures indicate a positive bias following good news from Dell (DELL) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). The Nasdaq has fallen for the past eight trading sessions, making it the longest losing streak since September 1994. That statistic alone will inspire the bulls to show some faith that a bounce awaits and/or at least cause some eager short-sellers to book some easy profits.

While the bulls and bears ponder what to do after the next oversold bounce occurs, traders will likely focus on riding the volatility in both directions. I'm in that same group which is why I'm open to the possibility of trading today, though I'm still very inclined to sit this one out. So far premarket trading is typical of an options expiration Friday, which is to say not very awe inspiring. Premarket gainers include BRCD, MRVL, FMCN, DELL, SMSI, TIE, MATK, PEIX, SHLD, KRY, KONG, BRCM, HANS, BIDU, QCOM, ANF, STXN, CTRN, CTRP, and TTEK. Notable losers include INTC, SFNT, FINL, CORS, ZOLT, MICC, INTC, CPWM, ASEI, RRGB, NXG, XING, CTHR, and ILMN.

I have a busy day planned as I keep one eye on the market and my watchlists the other on today's Q&A with members. Have a great Friday.